Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 463 at 13:23, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 463 Alaska	SEA 13:23	CMH 20:28	33%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:00 → MSP 05:13DL 953	1h 57m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → CMH 10:02DL 2772	7h 02m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → CMH 15:42DL 2550	6h 37m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → CMH 19:27DL 2786	10h 27m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 13:50 → MSP 19:06DL 536	1h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → CMH 23:07DL 1356	6h 17m	92%	81%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:20 → DTW 18:37DL 1706	1h 17m Detroit	DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic	6h 42m	89%	81%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016	2h 54m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:30 → CMH 20:58DL 2230	8h 28m	99%	80%
United Details →	SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835	2h 40m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic	8h 32m	91%	78%
Delta Details →	SEA 08:52 → ATL 16:50DL 560	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → CMH 21:33DL 1545	9h 41m	97%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SEA 00:00 → ATL 07:38DL 652	50m Atlanta	ATL 08:28 → CMH 10:05DL 1479	7h 05m	71%	65%
American Details →	SEA 13:42 → ORD 20:06AA 2966	48m Chicago	ORD 20:54 → CMH 23:32AA 4445 · flown by Republic	6h 50m	56%	48%
American Details →	SEA 11:40 → DFW 17:50AA 767	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:47 → CMH 22:26AA 641	7h 46m	58%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON