Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: DL 558 at 11:40 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 558 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:40	CVG 19:05	14%	4%	0.6%	89%
AS 520 Alaska	SEA 13:45	CVG 20:48	30%	5%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:00 → MSP 05:13DL 953	2h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 07:14 → CVG 10:03DL 954	7h 03m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	SEA 16:25 → LAS 19:00DL 2955	3h 55m Las Vegas	LAS 22:55 → CVG 05:42 +1DL 2794	10h 17m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:00 → ATL 07:38DL 652	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → CVG 12:38DL 3149	9h 38m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	1h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273	6h 33m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 17:34 → CVG 19:03DL 1858	10h 03m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265	3h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → CVG 22:46DL 2291	8h 37m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395	9h 40m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 13:50 → MSP 19:06DL 536	1h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469	6h 21m	93%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835	54m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → CVG 20:21UA 1732	6h 29m	65%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON