Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2601 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 2601 SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 639 SEA 13:13 → DEN 16:43 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2601 United Flight history →	SEA 05:00	DEN 08:43	6%	2%	0.6%	96%
WN 3753 Southwest	SEA 06:19	DEN 10:03	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1505 United Flight history →	SEA 08:56	DEN 12:45	12%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 1358 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:10	DEN 12:02	14%	4%	0.6%	85%
UA 757 United Flight history →	SEA 15:53	DEN 19:47	16%	6%	0.6%	88%
UA 2033 United	SEA 12:44	DEN 16:25	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 682 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:05	DEN 10:36	19%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 2851 Delta Flight history →	SEA 19:59	DEN 23:44	19%	6%	0.6%	78%
F9 3406 Frontier Flight history →	SEA 16:36	DEN 20:24	20%	6%	1.0%	78%
WN 3754 Southwest	SEA 10:59	DEN 14:43	20%	4%	0.5%	no record
AS 310 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:00	DEN 22:45	22%	6%	0.7%	65%
WN 677 Southwest	SEA 12:44	DEN 16:28	25%	4%	0.5%	no record
AS 535 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:44	DEN 15:38	25%	4%	0.6%	78%
DL 2543 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:50	DEN 17:43	27%	8%	0.6%	39%
AS 639 Alaska	SEA 13:13	DEN 16:43	38%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON