Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2748 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 2748 SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 767 SEA 11:40 → DFW 17:50 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2748 American Flight history →	SEA 05:05	DFW 11:02	10%	4%	1.1%	94%
AA 1667 American Flight history →	SEA 07:26	DFW 13:20	19%	6%	1.1%	89%
AS 424 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 00:40	DFW 06:19	21%	3%	1.0%	80%
DL 803 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:15	DFW 15:13	23%	7%	0.6%	81%
AS 321 Alaska	SEA 08:38	DFW 14:28	25%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 549 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:13	DFW 18:21	30%	7%	0.8%	72%
DL 870 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:55	DFW 23:55	30%	13%	1.1%	73%
AS 341 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:06	DFW 16:56	31%	6%	0.8%	64%
AA 707 American Flight history →	SEA 10:22	DFW 16:30	35%	8%	1.5%	79%worse than usual
AA 717 American Flight history →	SEA 13:57	DFW 20:04	37%	12%	1.5%	74%worse than usual
AA 757 American Flight history →	SEA 15:21	DFW 21:24	38%	19%	7.3%	74%worse than usual
AA 727 American Flight history →	SEA 17:40	DFW 23:39	38%	13%	2.0%	60%
AA 767 American Flight history →	SEA 11:40	DFW 17:50	38%	11%	1.4%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON