Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 812 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 812 SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 313 SEA 09:18 → DTW 16:33 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 812 Delta Flight history →	SEA 05:30	DTW 12:42	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 810 Delta Flight history →	SEA 23:15	DTW 06:28	12%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 533 Delta Flight history →	SEA 14:30	DTW 21:49	16%	5%	0.6%	86%
DL 1706 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:20	DTW 18:37	19%	4%	0.6%	79%
AS 315 Alaska	SEA 22:16	DTW 05:21	19%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 313 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:18	DTW 16:33	21%	3%	0.6%	85%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 00:00 → MSP 05:13DL 953	51m Minneapolis	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	5h 47m	85%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON