tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2191 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SEA 14:08 ELP 18:36 39% 4% 3.8% 61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:05 → IAH 13:31UA 2135 3h 27m Houston IAH 16:58 → ELP 18:02UA 3983 · flown by Mesa 9h 57m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 2h 53m Denver DEN 11:36 → ELP 13:31UA 2128 7h 31m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SEA 08:52 → ATL 16:50DL 560 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 19:39 → ELP 20:50DL 1713 10h 58m 97% 70%
AmericanDetails → SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02AA 2748 1h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:42 → ELP 13:34AA 2953 7h 29m 96% 64%
AmericanDetails → SEA 13:42 → ORD 20:06AA 2966 1h 13m Chicago ORD 21:19 → ELP 23:37AA 3948 · flown by Envoy 8h 55m 86% 61%
AmericanDetails → SEA 07:26 → DFW 13:20AA 1667 1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:42 → ELP 15:33AA 1681 7h 07m 89% 55%
AmericanDetails → SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707 1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:09 → ELP 19:00AA 555 7h 38m 85% 45%
AmericanDetails → SEA 11:40 → DFW 17:50AA 767 3h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:15 → ELP 22:05AA 1514 9h 25m 98% 44%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SEA 13:57 → DFW 20:04AA 717 1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:15 → ELP 22:05AA 1514 7h 08m 72% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON