Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 15–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3855 SEA 21:50 → EUG 23:08 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 4149 SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3855 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 21:50	EUG 23:08	15%	4%	1.0%	88%
OO 181 SkyWest	SEA 16:23	EUG 17:40	15%	5%	1.0%	no record
OO 3016 SkyWest	SEA 16:13	EUG 17:30	16%	5%	1.0%	no record
DL 4149 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 11:30	EUG 12:58	17%	5%	0.7%	88%
AS 2047 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 22:49	EUG 23:59	10%	0%	0.0%	90%
AS 2072 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 07:55	EUG 09:07	19%	0%	0.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON