Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1900 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 1900 SEA 07:30 → EWR 15:51 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 292 SEA 10:24 → EWR 18:17 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1900 United Flight history →	SEA 07:30	EWR 15:51	15%	4%	0.8%	90%
UA 2017 United	SEA 22:37	EWR 06:34	22%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 395 Alaska	SEA 22:38	EWR 06:23	24%	4%	1.2%	no record
AS 295 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:24	EWR 16:03	31%	5%	1.2%	83%worse than usual
AS 292 Alaska	SEA 10:24	EWR 18:17	33%	8%	1.2%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SEA 00:58 → ORD 06:48UA 747	56m Chicago	ORD 07:44 → EWR 10:51UA 1273	6h 53m	85%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON