Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 23–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3343 SEA 20:25 → FAT 22:46 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 383 SEA 16:16 → FAT 18:23 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 3343 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 20:25	FAT 22:46	23%	7%	0.9%	85%
AS 384 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:49	FAT 12:57	24%	5%	0.7%	93%worse than usual
AS 383 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:16	FAT 18:23	30%	6%	0.8%	78%
AS 2375 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 08:32	FAT 10:46	40%	7%	0.0%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON