tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 516 Alaska Flight history → SEA 08:23 FLL 17:27 25% 8% 1.0% 83%
DL 338 Delta Flight history → SEA 13:00 FLL 21:52 25% 9% 0.7% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:00 → MSP 05:13DL 953 3h 37m Minneapolis MSP 08:50 → FLL 13:25DL 673 10h 25m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 1h 09m Denver DEN 09:52 → FLL 15:57UA 1214 7h 57m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 1h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 09:45 → FLL 16:28DL 745 7h 58m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:05 → IAH 13:31UA 2135 3h 04m Houston IAH 16:35 → FLL 20:22UA 277 10h 17m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:00 → ATL 07:38DL 652 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512 9h 23m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812 3h 09m Detroit DTW 15:51 → FLL 18:57DL 1037 10h 27m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295 9h 40m 100% 71%
UnitedDetails → SEA 08:56 → DEN 12:45UA 1505 1h 08m Denver DEN 13:53 → FLL 19:44UA 1384 7h 48m 90% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SEA 11:40 → DFW 17:50AA 767 1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:01 → FLL 23:07AA 1847 8h 27m 73% 45%
UnitedDetails → SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835 54m Chicago ORD 17:59 → FLL 22:04UA 463 8h 12m 65% 42%
AmericanDetails → SEA 06:42 → CLT 14:48AA 381 46m Charlotte CLT 15:34 → FLL 17:40AA 2397 7h 58m 69% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON