Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 351 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 351 SEA 08:25 → HNL 11:34 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 626 SEA 10:05 → HNL 12:48 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 351 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:25	HNL 11:34	21%	5%	0.6%	86%
DL 419 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:30	HNL 19:36	26%	9%	0.5%	74%
AS 821 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:11	HNL 10:06	29%	5%	1.0%	72%
AS 268 Alaska	SEA 20:46	HNL 23:31	38%	11%	1.0%	no record
AS 825 Alaska	SEA 13:43	HNL 16:38	39%	7%	1.0%	no record
AS 451 Alaska	SEA 19:03	HNL 21:49	40%	11%	0.9%	no record
AS 899 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:09	HNL 15:04	40%	8%	1.1%	53%
AS 626 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:05	HNL 12:48	46%	8%	1.1%	63%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SEA 10:15 → OGG 13:19AS 929	1h 45m Kahului	OGG 15:04 → HNL 15:45AS 1145	8h 30m	95%	71%
Alaska Details →	SEA 13:53 → OGG 16:59AS 223	1h 35m Kahului	OGG 18:34 → HNL 19:24AS 1175	8h 31m	89%	69%
Alaska Details →	SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258	1h 32m Lihue	LIH 16:12 → HNL 17:01AS 1124	8h 33m	88%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON