Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2702 at 00:01 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2702 SEA 00:01 → IAH 06:29 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 438 SEA 10:52 → IAH 17:16 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2702 United	SEA 00:01	IAH 06:29	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2135 United Flight history →	SEA 07:05	IAH 13:31	14%	4%	0.7%	92%
UA 1752 United	SEA 12:01	IAH 18:32	17%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 1660 United Flight history →	SEA 17:04	IAH 23:35	20%	7%	0.8%	84%
AS 240 Alaska	SEA 17:51	IAH 23:52	28%	8%	0.8%	no record
AS 438 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:52	IAH 17:16	31%	5%	0.7%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON