tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 2117 at 09:00, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2117 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history → SEA 09:00 ICT 14:24 16% 6% 1.3% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Wichita is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 1h 12m Denver DEN 09:55 → ICT 12:27UA 5497 · flown by SkyWest 5h 27m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:00 → ATL 07:38DL 652 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 09:15 → ICT 10:26DL 1637 8h 26m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943 2h 02m Minneapolis MSP 13:26 → ICT 15:20DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest 7h 15m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 1h 23m Atlanta ATL 15:16 → ICT 16:34DL 828 8h 34m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → SEA 15:53 → DEN 19:47UA 757 1h 18m Denver DEN 21:05 → ICT 23:40UA 4755 · flown by SkyWest 5h 47m 89% 78%
UnitedDetails → SEA 00:58 → ORD 06:48UA 747 2h 04m Chicago ORD 08:52 → ICT 11:12UA 4809 · flown by SkyWest 8h 14m 95% 77%
UnitedDetails → SEA 08:56 → DEN 12:45UA 1505 1h 14m Denver DEN 13:59 → ICT 16:34UA 5454 · flown by SkyWest 5h 38m 90% 76%
AmericanDetails → SEA 07:26 → DFW 13:20AA 1667 3h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:07 → ICT 18:30AA 3691 · flown by Envoy 9h 04m 96% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SEA 13:57 → DFW 20:04AA 717 1h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:16 → ICT 22:48AA 5086 · flown by PSA 6h 51m 71% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON