Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 3026 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 12:49	IDA 15:43	17%	6%	0.6%	83%
AS 3422 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 20:06	IDA 22:59	21%	6%	0.7%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Idaho Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Idaho Falls is 1 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	2h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:03 → IDA 12:11DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest	5h 41m	99%	92%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	3h 05m Denver	DEN 11:48 → IDA 13:29UA 8183	7h 29m	99%	86%
American Details →	SEA 11:40 → DFW 17:50AA 767	2h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:30 → IDA 22:38AA 6467 · flown by SkyWest	9h 58m	96%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON