Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:50, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Indianapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 500 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:09	IND 16:16	23%	4%	0.7%	79%
AS 624 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:39	IND 05:44	24%	5%	0.8%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:00 → MSP 05:13DL 953	3h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 08:57 → IND 11:38DL 2456	8h 38m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910	6h 28m	97%	87%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 15m Denver	DEN 09:58 → IND 14:35UA 1522	6h 35m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:00 → ATL 07:38DL 652	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	9h 36m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 16:50 → IND 18:27DL 2979	9h 27m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:15 → SLC 10:26DL 2858	3h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:45 → IND 18:54DL 2228	8h 39m	97%	81%
United Details →	SEA 00:58 → ORD 06:48UA 747	3h 49m Chicago	ORD 10:37 → IND 12:47UA 473	8h 49m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → IND 00:20 +1DL 2657	9h 21m	97%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835	54m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → IND 20:16UA 3628 · flown by Republic	6h 24m	65%	53%
American Details →	SEA 11:40 → DFW 17:50AA 767	1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:01 → IND 22:26AA 2784	7h 46m	73%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON