Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Jackson on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 1 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	2h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282	5h 45m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265	3h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → JAC 18:54DL 4025 · flown by SkyWest	6h 45m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016	3h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:46 → JAC 16:57DL 509	6h 27m	99%	87%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	2h 32m Denver	DEN 11:15 → JAC 12:46UA 2193	6h 46m	99%	84%
United Details →	SEA 08:56 → DEN 12:45UA 1505	3h 35m Denver	DEN 16:20 → JAC 17:53UA 2200	7h 57m	97%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON