Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 429 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 429 SEA 07:25 → JFK 16:00 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 34 SEA 13:57 → JFK 21:40 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 429 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:25	JFK 16:00	13%	5%	0.8%	88%
DL 1044 Delta	SEA 16:15	JFK 00:22	16%	6%	0.8%	no record
DL 452 Delta Flight history →	SEA 22:40	JFK 06:50	16%	4%	0.9%	86%
DL 415 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:34	JFK 20:15	21%	7%	0.7%	74%
AS 16 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:59	JFK 14:42	23%	4%	1.0%	63%
AS 26 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:27	JFK 17:12	28%	6%	1.0%	86%worse than usual
B6 264 JetBlue Flight history →	SEA 22:10	JFK 06:30	29%	11%	1.3%	74%
AS 34 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:57	JFK 21:40	36%	7%	0.9%	76%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 13:50 → MSP 19:06DL 536	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 20:21 → JFK 23:52DL 2692	7h 02m	94%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON