Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AS 61 at 07:08 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–31%.

Safest bet that day AS 61 SEA 07:08 → JNU 08:44 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 209 SEA 11:24 → JNU 12:56 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 61 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:08	JNU 08:44	18%	3%	1.0%	86%
DL 2169 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:50	JNU 18:26	19%	6%	0.6%	83%
AS 7006 Alaska	SEA 09:16	JNU 10:54	24%	4%	1.0%	no record
AS 486 Alaska	SEA 20:07	JNU 21:44	31%	6%	0.9%	no record
AS 209 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:24	JNU 12:56	32%	5%	1.0%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON