Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 22–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 340 SEA 14:30 → KOA 17:35 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AS 709 SEA 10:16 → KOA 13:14 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 340 Delta Flight history →	SEA 14:30	KOA 17:35	22%	8%	0.8%	78%
AS 238 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:49	KOA 20:44	28%	7%	0.9%	77%
AS 709 Alaska	SEA 10:16	KOA 13:14	29%	5%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SEA 07:11 → HNL 10:06AS 821	1h 27m Honolulu	HNL 11:33 → KOA 12:31AS 1098	8h 20m	90%	71%
Alaska Details →	SEA 12:09 → HNL 15:04AS 899	1h 22m Honolulu	HNL 16:26 → KOA 17:12AS 1148	8h 03m	80%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON