Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4769 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 4769 SEA 06:30 → LAS 08:51 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 678 SEA 17:36 → LAS 19:57 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4769 Southwest	SEA 06:30	LAS 08:51	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2922 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:25	LAS 10:01	9%	3%	0.6%	92%
AS 612 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:48	LAS 10:29	15%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 2905 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:50	LAS 12:25	16%	4%	0.6%	85%
DL 2949 Delta Flight history →	SEA 20:34	LAS 23:10	23%	10%	0.7%	81%
DL 2955 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:25	LAS 19:00	26%	15%	0.7%	78%
AS 738 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:31	LAS 14:16	27%	5%	0.7%	80%
WN 4078 Southwest	SEA 11:09	LAS 13:44	28%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 4204 Frontier Flight history →	SEA 21:53	LAS 00:33	30%	12%	1.4%	70%
WN 3315 Southwest	SEA 14:19	LAS 16:54	33%	12%	0.6%	no record
AS 704 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:25	LAS 23:05	33%	10%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
AS 212 Alaska	SEA 10:40	LAS 13:01	33%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 768 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:21	LAS 22:44	39%	11%	0.8%	80%worse than usual
AS 523 Alaska	SEA 18:21	LAS 20:43	41%	14%	0.9%	no record
AS 1481 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:52	LAS 16:14	41%	8%	0.8%	92%worse than usual
AS 1676 Alaska	SEA 15:31	LAS 17:53	43%	15%	0.9%	no record
AS 678 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:36	LAS 19:57	44%	16%	0.9%	67%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON