Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OO 6053 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–27%.

Safest bet that day OO 6053 SEA 06:26 → LAX 09:42 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 487 SEA 11:49 → LAX 14:22 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6053 SkyWest	SEA 06:26	LAX 09:42	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 505 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:03	LAX 08:47	12%	2%	0.8%	84%
DL 1628 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	LAX 10:05	12%	3%	0.6%	93%
AA 4896 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 07:00	LAX 10:02	13%	4%	0.7%	86%
DL 2914 Delta Flight history →	SEA 12:35	LAX 15:23	14%	4%	0.5%	86%
DL 2769 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:05	LAX 12:55	15%	4%	0.5%	85%
OO 4988 SkyWest	SEA 13:06	LAX 16:01	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 4729 SkyWest	SEA 12:52	LAX 15:39	17%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 6438 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:13	LAX 20:10	18%	6%	0.7%	84%
OO 4796 SkyWest	SEA 15:09	LAX 17:52	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 2830 Delta Flight history →	SEA 15:10	LAX 17:51	21%	6%	0.6%	85%
DL 2861 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:30	LAX 20:13	21%	7%	0.5%	76%
DL 2512 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:29	LAX 00:05	25%	7%	0.6%	70%
AS 1306 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:18	LAX 10:52	25%	3%	0.8%	91%worse than usual
AS 63 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:25	LAX 23:16	25%	7%	0.7%	72%
F9 1178 Frontier Flight history →	SEA 20:33	LAX 23:25	25%	8%	1.2%	83%
AS 1300 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:59	LAX 18:44	26%	6%	0.8%	77%
AS 696 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:38	LAX 16:25	26%	4%	0.8%	82%
AS 492 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:05	LAX 21:40	27%	7%	0.8%	78%
AS 1672 Alaska	SEA 10:23	LAX 12:58	28%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 487 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:49	LAX 14:22	31%	5%	0.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON