Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 27–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 237 SEA 18:13 → LIH 21:25 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AS 258 SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 237 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:13	LIH 21:25	27%	6%	0.8%	76%
DL 345 Delta Flight history →	SEA 15:50	LIH 18:58	28%	7%	0.6%	76%
AS 258 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:28	LIH 14:40	33%	6%	0.7%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SEA 10:05 → HNL 12:48AS 626	2h 30m Honolulu	HNL 15:18 → LIH 16:08AS 1113	9h 03m	97%	69%
Alaska Details →	SEA 12:09 → HNL 15:04AS 899	2h 10m Honolulu	HNL 17:14 → LIH 18:04AS 1143	8h 55m	91%	65%
Alaska Details →	SEA 07:11 → HNL 10:06AS 821	1h 14m Honolulu	HNL 11:20 → LIH 12:10AS 1073	7h 59m	83%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON