Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AS 418 at 07:48 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–29%.

Safest bet that day AS 418 SEA 07:48 → MCI 13:21 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 497 SEA 18:23 → MCI 23:40 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 418 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:48	MCI 13:21	15%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 2256 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:30	MCI 23:00	26%	9%	0.7%	77%
AS 497 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:23	MCI 23:40	29%	7%	0.9%	81%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON