Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 448 at 23:15 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 24–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 448 SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 346 SEA 08:58 → MCO 17:13 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 448 Delta Flight history →	SEA 23:15	MCO 07:40	15%	4%	1.3%	85%
AS 390 Alaska	SEA 21:26	MCO 05:43	23%	4%	1.4%	no record
DL 328 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:51	MCO 17:35	24%	6%	1.3%	75%
AS 420 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:43	MCO 23:59	24%	5%	1.4%	82%
AS 346 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:58	MCO 17:13	33%	5%	1.5%	88%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:35 → MCO 16:13DL 2032	7h 43m	97%	75%
United Details →	SEA 08:56 → DEN 12:45UA 1505	1h 03m Denver	DEN 13:48 → MCO 19:39UA 501	7h 43m	89%	71%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → MCO 16:40DL 1150	7h 40m	94%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON