Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3759 Southwest	SEA 00:14	MDW 06:15	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 297 Southwest	SEA 09:14	MDW 15:15	16%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:00 → ATL 07:38DL 652	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417	8h 42m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:00 → MSP 05:13DL 953	1h 42m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → MDW 08:37DL 4712 · flown by Endeavor	6h 37m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	8h 16m	81%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON