Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 16–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3770 SEA 15:10 → MFR 16:44 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 3779 SEA 11:15 → MFR 12:56 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3770 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 15:10	MFR 16:44	16%	4%	0.8%	92%
DL 3954 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 21:35	MFR 23:11	18%	3%	0.9%	90%
OO 3033 SkyWest	SEA 08:49	MFR 10:20	18%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 3779 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 11:15	MFR 12:56	22%	5%	0.7%	85%
AS 2461 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 22:40	MFR 00:04	11%	1%	4.2%	89%
AS 2037 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 17:47	MFR 19:13	14%	4%	1.9%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON