Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 23–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 506 SEA 08:09 → MIA 17:16 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 1471 SEA 20:55 → MIA 05:47 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 506 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:09	MIA 17:16	23%	7%	0.7%	80%
AS 305 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:12	MIA 17:17	30%	6%	0.8%	80%
AA 1471 American Flight history →	SEA 20:55	MIA 05:47	31%	8%	0.9%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 17:53 → SLC 21:00DL 1165	2h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040	8h 47m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:00 → ATL 07:38DL 652	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 09:03 → MIA 11:03DL 1510	8h 03m	93%	74%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 09m Denver	DEN 09:52 → MIA 16:00UA 1418	8h 00m	98%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON