Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 507 at 08:06, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 507 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:06	MKE 14:01	17%	3%	0.7%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Milwaukee is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:00 → MSP 05:13DL 953	3h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 08:52 → MKE 10:11DL 1781	8h 11m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:00 → ATL 07:38DL 652	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 10:49 → MKE 11:51DL 1151	9h 51m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	2h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 13:43 → MKE 15:02DL 2006	6h 57m	98%	89%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 14m Denver	DEN 09:57 → MKE 13:25UA 1836	6h 25m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 15:55 → MKE 16:59DL 1206	8h 59m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → MKE 23:43DL 1268	9h 44m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	SEA 08:52 → ATL 16:50DL 560	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → MKE 21:02DL 2388	10h 10m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265	3h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → MKE 21:43DL 2619	8h 34m	99%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SEA 13:35 → ATL 21:47DL 542	52m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → MKE 23:43DL 1268	8h 08m	69%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON