Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, QX 2294 at 14:36, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


QX 2294 Horizon	SEA 14:36	MRY 16:58	22%	5%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	2h 32m Denver	DEN 11:15 → MRY 13:10UA 5438 · flown by SkyWest	8h 10m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	SEA 15:20 → SAN 18:12AS 765	3h 00m San Diego	SAN 21:12 → MRY 22:43AS 3005 · flown by SkyWest	7h 23m	98%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SEA 09:05 → SAN 11:48AS 1367	1h 05m San Diego	SAN 12:53 → MRY 14:28AS 3346 · flown by SkyWest	5h 23m	72%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON