Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 943 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 943 SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 509 SEA 11:51 → MSP 17:19 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 943 Delta Flight history →	SEA 06:05	MSP 11:24	5%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 953 Delta Flight history →	SEA 00:00	MSP 05:13	10%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 942 Delta Flight history →	SEA 14:30	MSP 19:54	12%	4%	0.5%	80%
DL 536 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:50	MSP 19:06	13%	3%	0.5%	91%
AS 555 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:35	MSP 13:57	15%	3%	0.7%	86%
AS 509 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:51	MSP 17:19	19%	4%	0.7%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON