tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching New Orleans on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 568 Alaska Flight history → SEA 09:37 MSY 16:16 28% 4% 0.7% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:00 → ATL 07:38DL 652 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 9h 37m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 55m Salt Lake City SLC 09:25 → MSY 13:47DL 2100 6h 17m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 2h 22m Denver DEN 11:05 → MSY 14:47UA 2273 7h 47m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SEA 10:05 → LAX 12:55DL 2769 2h 48m Los Angeles LAX 15:43 → MSY 21:28DL 2154 9h 23m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:05 → IAH 13:31UA 2135 1h 54m Houston IAH 15:25 → MSY 16:33UA 2738 7h 28m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 7h 57m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → SEA 07:20 → ATL 15:17DL 562 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 17:56 → MSY 18:34DL 678 9h 14m 94% 75%
JetBlueDetails → SEA 00:09 → BOS 08:29B6 398 3h 09m Boston BOS 11:38 → MSY 14:11B6 401 12h 02m 96% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SEA 13:35 → ATL 21:47DL 542 48m Atlanta ATL 22:35 → MSY 23:05DL 2224 7h 30m 63% 48%
AmericanDetails → SEA 13:42 → ORD 20:06AA 2966 1h 00m Chicago ORD 21:06 → MSY 23:34AA 3256 7h 52m 66% 44%
AmericanDetails → SEA 11:40 → DFW 17:50AA 767 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:42 → MSY 20:21AA 2237 6h 41m 50% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON