Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4472 at 07:39 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 4472 SEA 07:39 → OAK 09:59 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 706 SEA 20:45 → OAK 22:48 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4472 Southwest	SEA 07:39	OAK 09:59	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3173 Southwest	SEA 11:44	OAK 14:04	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 533 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:08	OAK 11:10	26%	4%	0.8%	92%worse than usual
AS 1328 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:47	OAK 18:57	26%	9%	0.8%	73%
WN 2126 Southwest	SEA 16:19	OAK 18:34	26%	8%	0.6%	no record
AS 706 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:45	OAK 22:48	34%	12%	0.9%	77%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON