Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 344 at 14:59 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 344 SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 929 SEA 10:15 → OGG 13:19 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 344 Delta Flight history →	SEA 14:59	OGG 17:56	17%	9%	0.6%	87%
AS 245 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:05	OGG 11:19	23%	6%	0.7%	82%
AS 202 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:59	OGG 22:07	24%	8%	0.9%	83%
AS 223 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:53	OGG 16:59	29%	7%	0.7%	80%
AS 929 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:15	OGG 13:19	31%	8%	0.8%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SEA 07:11 → HNL 10:06AS 821	2h 08m Honolulu	HNL 12:14 → OGG 13:03AS 1426	8h 52m	97%	72%
Alaska Details →	SEA 06:37 → SFO 08:38AS 725	1h 21m San Francisco	SFO 09:59 → OGG 12:17AS 979	8h 40m	84%	70%
Alaska Details →	SEA 10:05 → HNL 12:48AS 626	2h 01m Honolulu	HNL 14:49 → OGG 15:39AS 1136	8h 34m	94%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON