tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 405 at 08:18, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 405 Alaska Flight history → SEA 08:18 OKC 13:57 20% 3% 0.8% 92%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 1h 22m Denver DEN 10:05 → OKC 13:01UA 5324 · flown by SkyWest 6h 01m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:00 → ATL 07:38DL 652 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 09:53 → OKC 11:08DL 2490 9h 08m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265 3h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → OKC 21:07DL 3703 · flown by SkyWest 7h 58m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:05 → IAH 13:31UA 2135 3h 07m Houston IAH 16:38 → OKC 18:20UA 6334 · flown by Mesa 9h 15m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 22:44 → OKC 23:52DL 2423 9h 53m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → SEA 07:20 → ATL 15:17DL 562 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 18:05 → OKC 19:16DL 2784 9h 56m 94% 68%
AmericanDetails → SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02AA 2748 4h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:02 → OKC 16:15AA 2832 9h 10m 98% 65%
UnitedDetails → SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835 3h 24m Chicago ORD 20:29 → OKC 22:36UA 1440 9h 44m 96% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SEA 13:35 → ATL 21:47DL 542 57m Atlanta ATL 22:44 → OKC 23:52DL 2423 8h 17m 72% 54%
AmericanDetails → SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:31 → OKC 18:43AA 2734 6h 21m 63% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON