Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 312 at 09:00, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 312 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:00	OMA 14:13	15%	3%	0.6%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265	3h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:18 → OMA 20:40DL 3706 · flown by SkyWest	7h 31m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SEA 13:50 → MSP 19:06DL 536	2h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 21:30 → OMA 22:48DL 4014 · flown by SkyWest	6h 58m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:25 → OMA 12:46DL 4114 · flown by SkyWest	5h 16m	95%	88%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 24m Denver	DEN 10:07 → OMA 12:47UA 1633	5h 47m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:00 → ATL 07:38DL 652	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 09:25 → OMA 10:43DL 1125	8h 43m	97%	87%
United Details →	SEA 00:58 → ORD 06:48UA 747	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → OMA 10:27UA 1778	7h 29m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:20 → ATL 15:17DL 562	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 17:20 → OMA 18:42DL 2707	9h 22m	93%	80%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:28 → OMA 23:49DL 2010	9h 50m	96%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SEA 13:57 → DFW 20:04AA 717	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:57 → OMA 22:53AA 2270	6h 56m	53%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON