Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2618 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 2618 SEA 07:00 → ORD 13:15 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2966 SEA 13:42 → ORD 20:06 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2618 United Flight history →	SEA 07:00	ORD 13:15	13%	5%	0.6%	92%
UA 747 United Flight history →	SEA 00:58	ORD 06:48	13%	4%	0.6%	86%
AA 1872 American	SEA 06:20	ORD 12:23	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 2055 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:20	ORD 13:28	15%	6%	0.6%	85%
UA 1547 United	SEA 23:04	ORD 04:52	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 328 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 00:17	ORD 06:20	18%	3%	0.8%	83%
AA 2379 American	SEA 00:15	ORD 05:56	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 2108 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:40	ORD 23:38	23%	8%	0.6%	76%
AS 285 Alaska	SEA 23:39	ORD 05:30	23%	4%	0.8%	no record
AS 265 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:34	ORD 14:46	24%	5%	0.7%	77%
UA 2835 United Flight history →	SEA 10:52	ORD 17:05	25%	8%	0.6%	72%
UA 1265 United	SEA 17:06	ORD 23:03	26%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 1476 American	SEA 15:43	ORD 22:01	27%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 3105 American	SEA 11:01	ORD 17:21	29%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 2369 United	SEA 13:54	ORD 19:45	29%	8%	0.6%	no record
DL 637 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:58	ORD 18:00	32%	7%	0.6%	72%
AS 579 Alaska	SEA 11:54	ORD 17:40	32%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2966 American Flight history →	SEA 13:42	ORD 20:06	34%	8%	0.7%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON