Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 15–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1114 SEA 21:20 → PHL 05:29 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 442 SEA 08:28 → PHL 16:43 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1114 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:20	PHL 05:29	15%	4%	0.6%	85%
AS 371 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:29	PHL 05:26	19%	4%	0.8%	90%
AA 986 American	SEA 08:22	PHL 16:50	21%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2886 American Flight history →	SEA 22:47	PHL 07:06	24%	4%	0.8%	88%worse than usual
AS 442 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:28	PHL 16:43	25%	4%	0.8%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	52m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:08UA 1575	7h 08m	88%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON