Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1786 at 05:32 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 1786 SEA 05:32 → PHX 08:21 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 417 SEA 11:58 → PHX 14:43 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1786 Southwest	SEA 05:32	PHX 08:21	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 3792 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SEA 06:16	PHX 09:18	9%	3%	0.7%	96%
DL 2419 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:25	PHX 11:20	12%	4%	0.6%	92%
DL 2442 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:30	PHX 16:41	15%	6%	0.6%	82%
DL 2449 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:45	PHX 14:59	17%	5%	0.6%	79%
MQ 4207 Envoy	SEA 14:32	PHX 17:28	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 3934 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SEA 18:13	PHX 21:22	18%	6%	0.9%	68%
AA 4117 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SEA 11:35	PHX 14:33	19%	5%	0.6%	88%
DL 2698 Delta Flight history →	SEA 18:30	PHX 21:29	19%	8%	0.7%	77%
DL 2447 Delta Flight history →	SEA 20:30	PHX 23:33	20%	8%	0.7%	81%
WN 1849 Southwest	SEA 12:04	PHX 14:58	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 744 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:27	PHX 19:25	22%	6%	0.7%	75%
AS 632 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:55	PHX 22:53	24%	7%	0.8%	74%
AS 449 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:35	PHX 12:19	24%	4%	0.7%	84%
AS 700 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:44	PHX 16:45	25%	5%	0.7%	81%
AS 478 Alaska	SEA 15:03	PHX 17:49	26%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 1563 Southwest	SEA 15:14	PHX 18:08	26%	9%	0.6%	no record
AS 417 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:58	PHX 14:43	31%	5%	0.7%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON