Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 412 at 12:50, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 412 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:50	PIT 20:01	20%	5%	0.6%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:00 → MSP 05:13DL 953	2h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 07:45 → PIT 10:48DL 845	7h 48m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:00 → ATL 07:38DL 652	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345	9h 52m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	2h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → PIT 16:38DL 1188	8h 08m	98%	87%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 22m Denver	DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308	7h 16m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → PIT 18:45DL 3122	9h 45m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → PIT 00:22 +1DL 1351	9h 23m	97%	82%
United Details →	SEA 00:58 → ORD 06:48UA 747	3h 54m Chicago	ORD 10:42 → PIT 13:11UA 2752	9h 13m	98%	81%
United Details →	SEA 07:30 → EWR 15:51UA 1900	3h 38m Newark	EWR 19:29 → PIT 21:06UA 3403 · flown by Republic	10h 36m	100%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SEA 13:35 → ATL 21:47DL 542	52m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → PIT 00:22 +1DL 1351	7h 47m	69%	59%
United Details →	SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 18:05 → PIT 20:51UA 1946	6h 59m	75%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON