Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AS 610 at 07:38 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30–32%.

Safest bet that day AS 610 SEA 07:38 → PSP 10:15 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 457 SEA 10:21 → PSP 12:58 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 610 Alaska	SEA 07:38	PSP 10:15	19%	3%	1.0%	no record
AS 322 Alaska	SEA 14:25	PSP 17:01	30%	7%	1.0%	no record
AS 3285 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 19:07	PSP 21:52	31%	8%	1.3%	81%worse than usual
AS 457 Alaska	SEA 10:21	PSP 12:58	32%	6%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON