Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 489 Delta Flight history →	SEA 15:55	RDU 23:55	22%	8%	0.6%	77%
AS 572 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:20	RDU 16:31	22%	4%	0.7%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:00 → ATL 07:38DL 652	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → RDU 11:38DL 2052	8h 38m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	3h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 14:36 → RDU 18:12DL 2699	9h 07m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265	3h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:51 → RDU 00:00 +1DL 402	9h 51m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 15:52 → RDU 17:25DL 2600	8h 25m	99%	85%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 06m Denver	DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269	7h 16m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:20 → DTW 18:37DL 1706	3h 03m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → RDU 23:25DL 2839	9h 05m	98%	85%
United Details →	SEA 00:58 → ORD 06:48UA 747	4h 00m Chicago	ORD 10:48 → RDU 14:01UA 2616	10h 03m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	1h 43m Detroit	DTW 14:25 → RDU 16:08DL 1407	7h 38m	97%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SEA 00:00 → ATL 07:38DL 652	52m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → RDU 09:57DL 1699	6h 57m	75%	69%
Delta Details →	SEA 08:52 → ATL 16:50DL 560	50m Atlanta	ATL 17:40 → RDU 19:15DL 1097	7h 23m	68%	57%
American Details →	SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:30 → RDU 21:21AA 979	7h 59m	65%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON