Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2508 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 2508 SEA 07:15 → SAN 10:11 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 254 SEA 20:33 → SAN 23:14 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2508 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	SAN 10:11	12%	4%	0.7%	91%
WN 2093 Southwest	SEA 07:54	SAN 10:55	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 2533 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:45	SAN 12:39	20%	5%	0.7%	82%
AS 1401 Alaska	SEA 07:02	SAN 09:45	22%	4%	0.9%	no record
DL 2572 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:49	SAN 16:36	22%	5%	0.7%	82%
DL 2672 Delta Flight history →	SEA 19:40	SAN 22:34	25%	7%	0.7%	75%
AS 765 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:20	SAN 18:13	28%	8%	0.8%	78%
AS 1367 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:05	SAN 11:49	29%	5%	0.8%	91%worse than usual
AS 650 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:21	SAN 13:03	29%	6%	0.8%	81%
AS 621 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:31	SAN 14:13	29%	6%	0.9%	82%worse than usual
AS 791 Alaska	SEA 16:52	SAN 19:34	30%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 4046 Southwest	SEA 14:09	SAN 17:10	30%	10%	0.6%	no record
AS 623 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:05	SAN 21:46	31%	8%	0.9%	73%
AS 254 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:33	SAN 23:14	34%	8%	0.9%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON