tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 494 Alaska Flight history → SEA 09:38 SAT 15:46 22% 4% 0.7% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:00 → MSP 05:13DL 953 3h 40m Minneapolis MSP 08:53 → SAT 11:46DL 2667 9h 46m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 1h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 09:50 → SAT 13:36DL 3123 6h 06m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265 3h 05m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → SAT 21:08DL 2797 7h 59m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SAT 18:29DL 1465 10h 29m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → SEA 06:16 → PHX 09:18AA 3792 · flown by Envoy 3h 05m Phoenix PHX 12:23 → SAT 16:47AA 570 8h 31m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → SEA 00:58 → ORD 06:48UA 747 2h 37m Chicago ORD 09:25 → SAT 12:29UA 490 9h 31m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 52m Denver DEN 09:35 → SAT 12:43UA 2625 5h 43m 88% 78%
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:05 → IAH 13:31UA 2135 1h 15m Houston IAH 14:46 → SAT 15:53UA 2030 6h 48m 93% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:32 → SAT 18:44AA 3899 · flown by Envoy 6h 22m 66% 50%
AmericanDetails → SEA 13:42 → ORD 20:06AA 2966 1h 02m Chicago ORD 21:08 → SAT 23:59AA 431 8h 17m 71% 43%
AmericanDetails → SEA 11:40 → DFW 17:50AA 767 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:46 → SAT 20:01AA 2368 6h 21m 56% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON