Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1053 at 07:17 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 1053 SEA 07:17 → SFO 09:34 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 688 SEA 13:50 → SFO 15:53 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1053 Delta	SEA 07:17	SFO 09:34	21%	7%	0.7%	no record
DL 2635 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:39	SFO 23:59	21%	9%	0.8%	71%
DL 1412 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:45	SFO 12:04	22%	8%	0.7%	64%
DL 3707 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:30	SFO 16:49	23%	10%	0.7%	71%
UA 499 United Flight history →	SEA 07:10	SFO 09:33	23%	8%	0.6%	49%
DL 3991 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:50	SFO 20:16	25%	11%	0.8%	65%
AS 725 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:03	SFO 09:20	27%	7%	0.8%	52%
OO 5660 SkyWest	SEA 10:51	SFO 13:30	30%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 2478 United	SEA 15:16	SFO 17:29	31%	11%	0.6%	no record
UA 2831 United Flight history →	SEA 08:45	SFO 11:03	31%	10%	0.7%	33%
UA 737 United Flight history →	SEA 19:22	SFO 21:52	31%	12%	0.7%	56%
UA 2281 United	SEA 13:20	SFO 15:42	31%	12%	0.7%	no record
AS 655 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:42	SFO 14:04	33%	8%	0.8%	70%
AS 619 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:36	SFO 20:48	34%	13%	0.9%	29%
AS 528 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:53	SFO 11:09	37%	12%	0.8%	54%
AS 1385 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:51	SFO 19:54	38%	12%	0.8%	71%
AS 590 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:32	SFO 22:36	42%	13%	0.8%	57%
AS 9801 Alaska	SEA 08:31	SFO 10:35	44%	10%	0.8%	no record
AS 688 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:50	SFO 15:53	47%	11%	0.8%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON