Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1554 at 00:11 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1554 SEA 00:11 → SJC 02:28 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3766 SEA 17:19 → SJC 19:31 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1554 Southwest	SEA 00:11	SJC 02:28	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3736 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 08:30	SJC 10:55	11%	3%	0.6%	91%
OO 168 SkyWest	SEA 12:14	SJC 14:30	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 3897 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:45	SJC 17:05	13%	5%	0.6%	85%
AS 1341 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:34	SJC 09:44	13%	3%	0.9%	92%
WN 3765 Southwest	SEA 09:49	SJC 12:06	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 4100 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:50	SJC 20:14	15%	5%	0.7%	87%
AS 658 Alaska	SEA 10:54	SJC 13:01	27%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 1303 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:44	SJC 19:50	28%	7%	0.8%	83%worse than usual
AS 1673 Alaska	SEA 13:38	SJC 15:45	28%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 403 Alaska	SEA 20:46	SJC 22:52	28%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 3766 Southwest	SEA 17:19	SJC 19:31	30%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON