Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1128 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 1128 SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 733 SEA 11:51 → SLC 15:04 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1128 Delta Flight history →	SEA 05:30	SLC 08:30	4%	2%	0.5%	94%
DL 2858 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	SLC 10:26	10%	2%	0.5%	96%
DL 1016 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:30	SLC 12:36	14%	3%	0.5%	90%
DL 1265 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:09	SLC 14:15	17%	4%	0.5%	86%
DL 1120 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:30	SLC 16:40	18%	4%	0.5%	83%
DL 1165 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:53	SLC 21:00	21%	5%	0.5%	81%
OO 3268 SkyWest	SEA 17:18	SLC 20:23	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 663 Alaska	SEA 14:40	SLC 17:34	26%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 1454 Alaska	SEA 20:46	SLC 23:42	30%	6%	0.8%	no record
AS 733 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:51	SLC 15:04	31%	5%	0.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON