Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 4125 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 4125 SEA 10:00 → SMF 12:07 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 772 SEA 11:46 → SMF 13:35 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 4125 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 10:00	SMF 12:07	13%	4%	0.6%	91%
OO 164 SkyWest	SEA 09:17	SMF 11:16	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 4153 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:40	SMF 16:39	16%	5%	0.6%	88%
DL 4043 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:00	SMF 18:57	20%	5%	0.7%	89%
WN 1769 Southwest	SEA 18:49	SMF 20:45	30%	9%	0.7%	no record
AS 681 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:47	SMF 21:36	32%	8%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
AS 764 Alaska	SEA 15:58	SMF 17:48	32%	7%	0.6%	no record
AS 772 Alaska	SEA 11:46	SMF 13:35	34%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 2401 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 14:44	SMF 16:37	47%	13%	0.0%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON