Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AS 699 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day AS 699 SEA 06:40 → SNA 09:26 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 773 SEA 13:49 → SNA 16:41 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 699 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:40	SNA 09:26	8%	1%	0.8%	92%
AS 631 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:10	SNA 22:01	18%	3%	0.9%	80%
AS 759 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:18	SNA 11:15	19%	3%	0.7%	86%
AS 374 Alaska	SEA 14:40	SNA 17:19	22%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 3695 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 18:12	SNA 20:56	22%	6%	0.9%	60%
OO 3694 SkyWest	SEA 08:20	SNA 11:09	23%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 1357 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:06	SNA 13:55	23%	4%	0.7%	85%
AS 671 Alaska	SEA 17:57	SNA 20:35	23%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 1001 Delta	SEA 12:37	SNA 15:34	24%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 773 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:49	SNA 16:41	24%	4%	0.7%	87%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON