tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 647 Alaska Flight history → SEA 09:40 STL 15:20 20% 4% 0.6% 88%
AS 618 Alaska Flight history → SEA 18:01 STL 23:41 24% 6% 0.7% 92%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943 3h 50m Minneapolis MSP 15:14 → STL 16:50DL 1224 8h 45m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455 6h 03m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812 1h 51m Detroit DTW 14:33 → STL 15:17DL 1371 7h 47m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → SEA 13:50 → MSP 19:06DL 536 1h 24m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → STL 22:03DL 1609 6h 13m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 15:52 → STL 16:39DL 543 8h 39m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265 2h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → STL 21:00DL 2666 7h 51m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:20 → DTW 18:37DL 1706 1h 23m Detroit DTW 20:00 → STL 20:37DL 1541 7h 17m 91% 80%
AmericanDetails → SEA 13:42 → ORD 20:06AA 2966 2h 59m Chicago ORD 23:05 → STL 00:34 +1AA 3069 8h 52m 100% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:00 → ATL 07:38DL 652 47m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → STL 09:06DL 1400 7h 06m 63% 57%
UnitedDetails → SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835 50m Chicago ORD 17:55 → STL 19:23UA 4412 · flown by GoJet 6h 31m 60% 32%
AmericanDetails → SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:20 → STL 19:15AA 2487 6h 53m 48% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON