tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 27–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 504 Alaska SEA 19:56 STS 21:51 27% 6% 1.3% no record
AS 1347 Alaska SEA 10:57 STS 12:53 28% 5% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SEA 06:42 → PDX 07:37AS 2432 · flown by Horizon 3h 08m Portland PDX 10:45 → STS 12:26AS 2330 · flown by Horizon 5h 44m 100% 91%
AmericanDetails → SEA 06:16 → PHX 09:18AA 3792 · flown by Envoy 1h 07m Phoenix PHX 10:25 → STS 12:52AA 3757 · flown by Envoy 6h 36m 92% 77%
AlaskaDetails → SEA 06:40 → SNA 09:26AS 699 2h 22m Santa Ana SNA 11:48 → STS 13:37AS 3467 · flown by SkyWest 6h 57m 99% 75%
AlaskaDetails → SEA 12:05 → PDX 13:06AS 2181 · flown by Horizon 1h 24m Portland PDX 14:30 → STS 16:15AS 3483 · flown by SkyWest 4h 10m 90% 75%
AlaskaDetails → SEA 11:31 → LAS 14:16AS 738 1h 08m Las Vegas LAS 15:24 → STS 17:16AS 2458 · flown by Horizon 5h 45m 79% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON